Panama vs England

Group L’s final matchday delivers a rematch with serious narrative weight: England against Panama at the New York/New Jersey Stadium on 27 June, eight years after the 6-1 hammering at the 2018 World Cup group stage in Nizhny Novgorod that gave England their biggest-ever World Cup margin of victory and their first six-goal World Cup performance. Harry Kane scored a hat-trick that day, John Stones scored twice, and the resulting goal difference effectively secured England’s last-16 spot with a game to spare. Kane and Stones are both still in the 2026 squad. The fixture is, in narrative terms, a measuring-stick game: how far has Panama come in eight years, and how far has England’s transformation under Tuchel really gone?

Panama in 2026 is a substantially different team from the 2018 vintage. Thomas Christiansen has spent six years building a defensively-organised, set-piece-disciplined low-block side; the days of Panama leaking five-plus goals to a top European nation should be behind them. Adalberto Carrasquilla, the team’s best player, is a genuine top-tier CONCACAF midfielder. Amir Murillo and José Córdoba give Panama a more European-level back-line than the 2018 group could field. The realistic margin of defeat — assuming Panama defend competently and Carrasquilla is fit — should be 2-0 or 3-0, not 6-1.

England’s plan is straightforward and unlikely to change. By matchday three, Tuchel will almost certainly have already secured first place in Group L (assuming wins over Croatia and Ghana, or one win plus one draw), which means rotation is on the table — Kane probably starts because he’s chasing tournament records, Bellingham probably starts because he is the system’s creative axis, but Saka, Rice, Stones, and Pickford could all be rested ahead of the knockouts. The structural advantage is overwhelming: England’s central midfielders are individually better than Panama’s, England’s wingers are individually better than Panama’s full-backs, and England’s striker has scored 38 international goals more than Panama’s entire forward line combined.

The prediction is England 3-0. Kane gets one (probably from open play this time rather than penalties), one of Saka/Bellingham/Watkins/Rashford gets another, and either a set piece or a substitute closes the scoring. The realistic upside for Panama is 1-2 — a Carrasquilla set-piece goal against a rotated England that drifts in the second half. The realistic floor for England is 4-0 if they go full-strength and Panama collapses early. The 6-1 will not be repeated; the result, almost certainly, will be.