Iraq vs Norway

The opening matchday for Group I closes with Iraq vs Norway at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, just outside Boston — a Group I fixture between two of the World Cup’s most unusual stories. Iraq are at their first World Cup in 40 years; Norway are at their first in 28. Neither side has a single player who has played a senior World Cup match before. The fixture is genuinely a first-meeting at international level: no record of a previous senior friendly or competitive between the federations exists in standard databases.

The tactical story is one-directional. Norway, ranked No. 33 in the world but coming off a UEFA qualifying campaign that produced 37 goals in 8 matches, will look to do exactly what they did against Italy and Israel: feed Haaland early, use Ødegaard’s left half-space movement to create the second wave of attacks, and let the wide running of Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb or Jørgen Strand Larsen unlock the channels. Iraq, ranked No. 58 and unfamiliar with this opposition, will sit in a compact 4-2-3-1 with two screening midfielders and look for set-piece moments. The exact same blueprint that worked against Bolivia in the playoff is the only realistic blueprint here — only the opposition individual quality is two tiers higher.

The matchup that will define the game is Haaland’s pre-tournament expectation against Iraq’s defensive structure. Haaland scored 16 in 8 qualifying matches, against opposition that included Italy. Iraq’s best defensive performances have come at Asian level, where the box-area athleticism is materially below Haaland’s. The realistic ceiling for Iraq is a 1-0 or 2-0 loss with no own-goals and no red cards — a competitive defeat that preserves goal difference for the subsequent fixtures. Graham Arnold has been explicit in pre-tournament press that this is exactly what he wants from the match: minimise damage, soak up the occasion, then aim everything at the Senegal swing fixture and the residual France matchday-3.

Norway’s expectation, conversely, is comfortable. Three points and an opening-night Haaland goal would set up the rest of Group I as a procession; anything less than a win would feel like a stumble. The new 48-team format makes goal difference more important than in any previous tournament, since the eight best third-placed teams advance. Both managers will be conscious of margins. Norway will want a three-or-more win to bank a buffer; Iraq will be content with a 0-2 that preserves their place in the group’s goal-difference tiebreakers. Expect that to shape the match shape from minute 70 onward.