Netherlands

The Netherlands enter the World Cup as Group F’s clear favourites — and the third or fourth most likely team to win the entire tournament — but the gap between top-of-the-group and what they actually need to lift the trophy is wider than the FIFA ranking suggests. They are ranked seventh in the world. They are arguably top-five by squad value. They have the second-deepest centre-back rotation in the tournament (only France’s is deeper) and one of the top-three goalkeeper rooms. What they do not have is a No. 10 in the absence of Xavi Simons, and that is the difference between a semi-final and a quarter-final exit.

The group itself should be a controlled walk. Japan in the Dallas opener is the trickiest fixture — Moriyasu’s mid-block-and-counter setup is built almost exactly to exploit the Netherlands’ high line, and the heat in Texas in June will not help — but the talent gap is real, and a 2-1 or 3-1 Dutch win is the most likely outcome. Sweden in Houston six days later is a six-pointer for first place in name only; on paper the Netherlands should comfortably outplay a side that only qualified through the playoffs. Tunisia in Kansas City to close the group is the squad-rotation game where Koeman can give minutes to Brobbey, Hato, Roefs and Til ahead of the knockouts.

The bigger questions are downstream. The Round of 16 most likely opponent is a Group C runner-up — Belgium, Mexico or possibly Morocco — none of whom should beat this Dutch side over 90 minutes. The quarter-final is where it gets unforgiving. France, Spain, Brazil and Argentina are all in the projected top half of the bracket, and Koeman’s record in knockout football against elite sides is poor: a Euro 2020 loss, a 2022 World Cup loss to Argentina that he watched as a TV pundit, and only one knockout win as a top-level club manager (the 2021 Copa del Rey). Van Dijk has said publicly that this is his last World Cup; whether he leaves the orange shirt with a trophy or a third runners-up plate now becomes the central storyline of the entire Dutch tournament.

The Netherlands arrive in North America carrying the same paradox they have carried for half a century: enough quality to win the thing, just barely not enough to actually do so. Three finals (1974, 1978, 2010), three runner-up finishes, no trophy. Ronald Koeman, now in his second spell and a settled hand at 63, has produced a squad that is technically Group F’s deepest in three of four positional groups and arguably the second-strongest top-eight contender from UEFA after France and Spain. What he has not produced — and could not have, after Xavi Simons ruptured his ACL in April — is a true No. 10 to bridge De Jong’s deep distribution and the Gakpo-Depay-Malen front line.

Tactically, this is a 4-3-3 that breathes. Koeman builds through Verbruggen and the centre-backs, asks De Jong to drop between Van Dijk and Van de Ven to form a back three in possession, and lets Dumfries push high on the right. The Liverpool-Brighton-City spine of Van Dijk, Gakpo, Gravenberch, Van de Ven, Verbruggen and Reijnders gives the team an almost Premier League rhythm at international tempo — and it is exactly the kind of opponent Japan have specifically practised for, with a deep-block-and-counter rehearsal that beat Germany and Spain in 2022. The Tunisia and Sweden matches should be more straightforward; the Japan opener is the one Koeman has been quietly worrying about for six months.

Two structural concerns persist. The first is Depay — at 32, playing in São Paulo for Corinthians, his hamstring scare in April only barely cleared in time. Without him the centre-forward is Weghorst or Brobbey, neither of whom changes a tight game. The second is the high line: in qualifying, mobile front threes pulled Van Dijk into uncomfortable foot-races, and only Van de Ven’s recovery pace papered over the gap. Against Sweden’s Isak-Gyökeres pairing on June 20, that line will get its hardest stress test of the group stage.

The 2010 final loss to Spain in Johannesburg remains the high-water mark of the modern era. Since then: a quarter-final exit in 2014, missing 2018 entirely, a R16 exit in 2022. The Koeman 2.0 brief is unambiguous — get to the semis at minimum, and if Van Dijk is to lift any trophy in orange, this is the last realistic window.

Ceiling: a semi-final or the final itself, with the draw kind on the right half of the bracket. Floor: a Last-16 exit to a top-eight European side, the third straight World Cup without a quarter-final. Most likely: quarter-final, where the draw is unforgiving and the No. 10 hole shows.

Ronald Koeman is 63 years old, was born in Zaandam, and has been an immovable fixture of Dutch football for forty-five years. As a player he won everything that mattered — the European Cup with PSV in 1988, the same trophy with Barcelona in 1992 (he scored the winning goal in the final against Sampdoria), and Euro 1988 with the Netherlands. He captained his country at the 1994 World Cup. He was a centre-back with the technique of a midfielder and the dead-ball record of an out-and-out specialist. The shape of the modern attacking centre-half — Van Dijk, Stones, Rüdiger — owes something to the template he set.

As a manager he is on his second spell with the Netherlands, having returned in 2023 after his first stint (2018-2020) was interrupted by an open-heart surgery and the Barcelona job that immediately followed. The first spell produced the 2019 UEFA Nations League final and a sense that the post-Hiddink Oranje had finally been rebuilt. The Barcelona detour (August 2020 to October 2021) was unhappy — a club in financial freefall, the Messi departure, and a Copa del Rey trophy that papered over little — but it sharpened his pragmatism. The Koeman who came back to lead the Netherlands a second time was less ideological than the one who left.

His philosophy at international level is recognisably Cruyffian in starting principles — build through the keeper, attack with width, press high — but bent by experience toward tournament football’s realities. He will drop the line against pace, drop the midfield against creative threes, and in the worst case play the 3-4-3 he experimented with at Everton. Frenkie de Jong is the player around whom everything else is arranged. The signature tactical decision of this World Cup cycle was reintegrating De Jong as the deepest midfielder rather than the most advanced of the three — a shift that solved Netherlands’ build-up problem in qualifying.

The personnel question that has dogged this World Cup window is Memphis Depay. Koeman has stuck with him through a season at Corinthians that has had his fitness queried; the decision to retain Depay over a younger No. 9 (Brobbey, Weghorst) reflects the manager’s deep faith in his all-time top scorer’s tournament temperament. The Xavi Simons ACL in April left the most painful gap; Koeman responded by promoting Gravenberch and Reijnders to dual-eight roles rather than directly replacing Simons. The Frimpong omission was the one selection call that drew real criticism. If the Netherlands fall short again, the conversation will turn on whether Koeman’s loyalty cost him an attacking option the squad lacked.