Sweden

Sweden’s World Cup is a project that began on October 20, 2025, when Graham Potter signed a short-term emergency contract three weeks after being sacked by West Ham. The Swedish Football Association had just dismissed Jon Dahl Tomasson after a qualifying group disaster — third behind Switzerland and Slovenia — and the playoffs were five months away. Potter’s first game in charge was a 4-1 home defeat to Switzerland in a dead-rubber qualifier. Six months later, Sweden are in the World Cup via a 3-1 win over Ukraine and a 3-2 over Poland in the playoff final at Stockholm’s Friends Arena. The FA extended Potter’s contract to 2030 the day after the Poland result.

The squad is built around two players: Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, both 20+ league goalscorers in 2025-26 in the Premier League. The previous Sweden management never managed to pair them effectively — the two strikers’ positional overlap in a 4-3-3 cancelled their respective strengths. Potter has reverted to a 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid that lets Isak roam off the left, Gyökeres pin the centre-backs, and Anthony Elanga attack the right channel with Newcastle’s transition pace. Lucas Bergvall, 20, runs in advanced central areas as the No. 10 the squad does not really have without Dejan Kulusevski (out for a year-plus with a knee injury at Spurs). The system is built more on individual quality than on collective identity — Potter has had four FIFA windows since taking the job, and the priority was to simplify, not to install.

Group F’s order suits Sweden. Tunisia first up in Monterrey is the must-win; the heat will be uncomfortable but a Tunisia side without a proven goalscorer should not score against Lindelöf and Hien at full strength. Netherlands in Houston six days later is the likely loss — the Koeman side is more technically gifted and Sweden’s midfield will struggle to keep the ball. Japan in Dallas to close the group is the projected six-pointer for second place, and the stylistic concern: Japan’s mid-block sits exactly where Sweden’s midfield wants to play, and the front three of Kubo, Doan and Ueda has more cohesion than Isak-Gyökeres-Elanga at this point in their international partnership.

Ceiling: a quarter-final, with Isak in form and the bracket landing on a friendly Group H runner-up. Floor: a group-stage exit if the Tunisia opener slips. Most likely: a second-place finish in the group, a Round of 16 loss to a Group C or D winner, and Potter’s contract still intact for Euro 2028.

Sweden’s World Cup campaign almost did not happen. After Jon Dahl Tomasson’s qualifying disaster — they finished third behind Switzerland and Slovenia in their UEFA group — the Swedish FA fired him in October 2025 and rolled the dice on Graham Potter, who had been sacked by West Ham only three weeks earlier. Potter inherited a squad with two genuine world-class strikers (Isak and Gyökeres) and a midfield that had been mis-organized for three years. His first match was a 4-1 home defeat to Switzerland in a dead-rubber qualifier. Six months later, after rebuilds in shape, mentality and selection criteria, Sweden are in the World Cup via emphatic playoff wins over Ukraine (3-1) and Poland (3-2 in Stockholm). The FA extended his deal through 2030.

The tactical reset under Potter has been less revolutionary than reductive. He inherited a Sweden side that had been trying to play possession football without the midfielders for it. He has reverted to a 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2 hybrid that lets Isak drift left, Gyökeres pin the centre-backs, Elanga attack from the right, and Bergvall — at 20, the breakout star of the cycle — operate as a roaming No. 10 in a system that does not particularly require one. Set-pieces are heavily drilled, with Lindelöf and Hien as primary targets and Gyökeres lurking at the back post. It is not pretty, but it is the most plausible system for the personnel.

The Group F draw is awkward. Tunisia first up on June 14 is the must-win opener; lose or draw and the maths get punishing fast. Netherlands on June 20 is a likely loss against a more talented side and the game where Sweden are most likely to leak goals against pace. Japan on June 25 is the projected six-pointer for second place — a styles clash where Japan’s mid-block could prove a problem for a Sweden midfield that does not press well in advanced areas. Dejan Kulusevski’s absence (out over a year with a knee injury at Spurs) is enormous; he was the squad’s only proven creative midfielder.

Historically, Sweden are 1958 runners-up at home, semi-finalists in 1994, and quarter-finalists as recently as 2018. They have missed the last two World Cups (2022, 2018 was the last appearance), so this is a generational comeback. Isak and Gyökeres are the headline reason anyone outside Scandinavia is paying attention.

Ceiling: Round of 16, with an outside path to a quarter-final if the draw cooperates. Floor: a group stage exit with one win, the Tunisia game, in pocket. Most likely: a 1W-1D-1L finish that takes second place behind Netherlands and sets up a brutal Last-16 tie with a Group C/D heavyweight.

Graham Potter is 50 years old, English, and the most unlikely Swedish national team coach in modern history — or at least he would have been before the timing made it inevitable. He was hired on October 20, 2025, three weeks after West Ham fired him, with a single brief: get Sweden through the playoffs and into the 2026 World Cup. The initial contract was short-term and conditional. Six months later, after Sweden’s 3-1 playoff win over Ukraine and 3-2 victory over Poland in Stockholm, the deal was extended to 2030.

The Sweden connection is older than it looks. Potter coached Östersunds FK in the Swedish lower divisions from 2011 to 2018, won three promotions, lifted the 2017 Svenska Cupen, and beat Arsenal at the Emirates in a Europa League round-of-32 first leg that remains one of the great upsets of the decade. He speaks fluent Swedish. He lived in Östersund for seven years and the relationships from that period — including Daniel Kindberg, the club president — are how the Swedish FA arrived at his name in October. He is, by some distance, the most successful English manager in Swedish football history.

His club career after Östersund was a steeper curve. Swansea (2018-19, Championship play-off semis), Brighton (2019-22, a club-record sixth-place Premier League finish), then a hard fall: Chelsea (Sept 2022 to April 2023, sacked in a season of injury chaos) and West Ham (January to September 2025, sacked after eight months for poor results). The pattern across all five jobs is the same — Potter is an outstanding developmental coach with intricate possession ideas, but the inflection at top-six clubs (where mid-block defending and pragmatism matter more than rotation patterns) has not yet clicked. International football may suit him better than club football: less weekly grind, more time to drill a small set of patterns into a fixed squad.

With Sweden, the tactical reset has been deliberately reductive. He inherited a side that had been trying to play possession football without possession-football midfielders. He has reverted to a 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2 hybrid, simplified the rotations, paired Isak and Gyökeres in a way Tomasson never managed, and given Anthony Elanga a clearly defined role as the right-side transition outlet. The Kulusevski long-term injury — the squad’s only genuine creator — has forced Potter to lean heavily on Lucas Bergvall, 20 years old, who has emerged from the Tottenham academy as Sweden’s most promising No. 10 in a decade. The Bergvall-Isak axis is the team’s most plausible source of goals in open play. If Sweden are eliminated in the group stage, the conversation will turn to how short Potter’s preparation runway was. If they advance, it will turn to a manager whose CV finally has a tournament knockout result on it.