Netherlands vs Japan

Group F opens at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on June 14, with kickoff timed for the hot half of a Texas afternoon. The Netherlands are clear favourites — top of the group on paper, top half of the bracket on results — but the matchup itself is awkward for Koeman in a way the bookmakers may underrate. Japan have made a four-year project out of beating exactly the kind of side the Netherlands present: a possession-leaning European top-ten team that defends with a high line and prefers to control the ball. Germany 2-1, Spain 2-1, both at the 2022 World Cup, are the reference points. Both opponents were dominated for 65 minutes; both lost on a pair of three-pass vertical breaks.

The structural risk for the Netherlands is the line. Van Dijk is 34 and recovering from a Liverpool season that included two minor calf strains; Van de Ven’s pace is what makes the line tenable. Behind them, Verbruggen will start in goal and will face a Japan side that has rehearsed pressing-trap routines from goal-kicks for two years. The Dutch midfield three of Reijnders, De Jong and Gravenberch is the strongest in Group F, but it is also a midfield that prefers to step forward into the half-spaces — exactly the spaces Japan’s wing-backs (Sugawara on the right, [unverified] Ito or Watanabe on the left) want to attack. Moriyasu will set up in a 3-4-2-1 with Ueda alone up front and Kubo and Doan/Kamada underneath. Tunisia weren’t aggressive enough in this same stadium to test Japan in 2022; the Netherlands will not be passive.

In the other direction, Japan’s defensive structure is the most rehearsed in Asia but their centre-back trio averages 1.83m — vulnerable to set pieces against a Dutch side that scored 18 of their qualifying goals from dead balls or rebounds. Depay’s return from injury is the swing variable in the Dutch attack; if he plays 75 minutes the Netherlands’ xG is probably the highest in the match, and his free-kick delivery is the single most reliable goal-creation source in the squad. If Brobbey or Weghorst start, the chance creation gets one-dimensional fast and Japan are well-equipped to defend that.

The most likely outcome is a Dutch win that is narrower than the rankings suggest. A 2-1 result with Japan scoring on a transition between the 35th and 60th minute, and the Netherlands eventually breaking through on Gakpo’s left-channel running or a set piece, is the modal prediction. A Japanese upset would not be a shock — they have produced this exact result twice in four years — and would reshape the entire group. A 3-0 or 4-0 Dutch romp is the lowest-probability outcome on the board.