Germany

Germany should win Group E. The squad has more Champions League minutes than Ecuador, Ivory Coast and Curaçao combined, and Nagelsmann finally has the Wirtz-Musiala creative axis at simultaneous peak fitness for the first time at a senior tournament. The fixture schedule helps too: Curaçao first (effective warm-up), Ivory Coast second (winnable but the trap match), Ecuador third (potentially deciding first place but with both teams likely already qualified).

The realistic path looks like this. Top the group, draw a CONCACAF runner-up or a third-place qualifier in the round of 16, face a tougher South American side like Uruguay or Colombia in the quarters, then meet Spain, England, France or Argentina in a semi-final. Anything less than a semi-final will be picked over by the German press as a failed cycle for a generation of attackers — Wirtz, Musiala, Havertz — that should be hitting prime years simultaneously. Anything more requires Neuer to defy his age across seven matches and for someone to definitively claim the No. 9 spot.

The genuine concern is depth at full-back and the unresolved striker question. Nathaniel Brown, at 22 with three caps, is the only natural cover at left-back behind David Raum. The forwards rotation between an injury-returning Havertz, an unproven Woltemade, and a Sané-Beier-Undav supporting cast leaves room for the type of misfire that defined Hansi Flick’s 2022 group stage. If Wirtz or Musiala were to pick up a tournament-ending injury, the ceiling drops sharply.

Germany arrive in North America carrying a familiar weight: the 1954, 1974, 1990 and 2014 champions have not won a knockout tie at a World Cup since their 2014 final, and back-to-back group exits in 2018 and 2022 still hang over the federation. The brief for Julian Nagelsmann is simple — at least restore the team to semi-final relevance and prove the Euro 2024 quarter-final to Spain was a floor, not a ceiling.

The tactical project is built around two players. Florian Wirtz, fresh off his first season at Liverpool, plays as a free No. 10 between the lines, while Jamal Musiala is the carrier who turns a pass into a chance with two touches. Around them, Nagelsmann uses Joshua Kimmich as an inverted right-back to give the double pivot (typically Aleksandar Pavlović with Angelo Stiller or Leon Goretzka) a numerical edge in build-up. The base is a 4-2-3-1 that morphs into a 3-2-5 in possession, with Kai Havertz drifting wide to free Musiala into central pockets.

The biggest story of the squad announcement was Manuel Neuer’s reversal. At 40, with Oliver Baumann having handled most of qualifying, Nagelsmann chose experience and named Neuer as captain. Antonio Rüdiger anchors the defence next to Jonathan Tah, who finally got his Bayern move; Nico Schlotterbeck provides ball-playing depth. Left-back is the obvious thin spot — David Raum starts but 22-year-old Eintracht Frankfurt’s Nathaniel Brown is the only natural backup after Maximilian Mittelstädt missed out.

There are also genuine concerns. Serge Gnabry’s late Champions League injury cost Germany a tournament-tested wide forward; the No. 9 slot remains unsettled with Havertz returning from a long injury layoff and Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade still unproven at this level; and the surprise inclusion of 17-year-old Bayern Munich attacker Lennart Karl, while exciting, is more of a 2030 bet than a 2026 weapon.

Group E should pose Germany no qualification anxiety — the path to the round of 16 looks comfortable — but the real test starts on June 25 in New Jersey against an Ecuador side built specifically to frustrate teams that want to play through them.

Julian Nagelsmann’s biography reads like a tactics textbook turned into a CV. Forced to retire as a player at 20 after meniscus problems at FC Augsburg, he moved into Hoffenheim’s youth setup in 2010 and was inside the Bundesliga first-team dressing room as head coach by February 2016, aged 28 — still the youngest manager appointed in the league’s history. The “Mini-Mourinho” nickname stuck, fairly or not.

The Hoffenheim era (full first-team charge 2016-2019) saw him deliver back-to-back top-four finishes and Champions League qualification at a club whose budget was a fraction of Germany’s elite. RB Leipzig from 2019 produced a Champions League semi-final in the 2020 pandemic mini-tournament in Lisbon and a DFB-Pokal final. Bayern Munich came calling in 2021 with a record €25m compensation fee — still the highest transfer fee ever paid for a manager — and Nagelsmann won the Bundesliga title in year one before a deteriorating dressing-room situation got him sacked in March 2023.

Germany hired him in September 2023 after Hansi Flick’s removal, and the project was always going to be a build to USA 2026 rather than a quick fix. Euro 2024 produced a credible quarter-final on home soil — losing to eventual champions Spain in extra time on a controversial non-handball call — and qualifying for the World Cup went smoothly. The tactical signature has remained constant: a 4-2-3-1 with Joshua Kimmich as an inverted right-back, two No. 10s (Wirtz and Musiala) interchanging between the lines, and aggressive counter-pressing on lost possession.

At 38, Nagelsmann is the third-youngest manager at the tournament. The pressure is also the highest of any in Group E: anything short of a semi-final will be debated in the German press as a missed opportunity for a generation that includes Wirtz, Musiala, Pacho’s compatriots in defence, and a rejuvenated Manuel Neuer. The June 25 game in New Jersey against Ecuador could end up being the most important match of his career to date.