Belgium

There is no kinder way to put it: this Belgium team has been on the brink of contention for almost a decade, and they have nothing to show for it but a 2018 third-place finish, a 2020 Euro quarter-final, and a Qatar group-stage embarrassment. Group G is the gift of the entire 2026 draw — Egypt is the only opponent with comparable resources, and they are not within a continent’s worth of Belgium’s elite-club concentration. The Red Devils should win the group. Anything less than top spot would constitute a genuine surprise.

The real question is what happens after. Belgium’s most likely outcome based on draw, talent and form is a quarter-final, with a knockout-round meeting against one of the top-tier European sides (France, Spain, Germany or England) waiting in the bracket. Garcia’s 4-3-3 against an elite midfield is a different test than what Wales or Egypt offer, and Belgium’s defensive frailty — already visible in qualifying — is the same flaw that ended their Qatar 2022 campaign. If De Bruyne stays fit, Doku has the tournament of his life, and Lukaku reverses his Napoli slump, semi-finals are possible. None of those three things are certain.

The floor is darker than fans want to acknowledge. A Round of 16 exit to a well-coached, organized side (Croatia, Senegal, the Netherlands depending on bracket) is entirely plausible given the defensive concerns. Belgium have repeatedly been the team that loses to a team they should beat in knockout football. The squad knows it. Garcia knows it. The federation knows it. And no one has another plan if it happens again.

Belgium walk into North America carrying the same unanswered question they’ve carried for over a decade: can this golden generation finally translate its individual brilliance into a deep tournament run? After third place at Russia 2018, a quarter-final exit at Euro 2020, and a group-stage humiliation at Qatar 2022, the Red Devils now look like a team running out of time. Kevin De Bruyne is 34, Romelu Lukaku 33, Thibaut Courtois 33, and Axel Witsel turns 38 during the tournament. The 26-man squad is heavy with experience precisely because Rudi Garcia knows this group has one more chance.

The tactical setup under Garcia, who replaced Domenico Tedesco in January 2025, leans on a flexible 4-3-3 that can morph into a 4-2-3-1 when Belgium need an extra body in midfield. De Bruyne floats from the right half-space, Doku terrorizes fullbacks down the left, and Lukaku — when sharp — remains a brutal target inside the box. Tielemans, Onana and Witsel offer different flavors in the engine room: Tielemans for ball progression and set pieces, Onana for the physical duel, Witsel for tempo control.

The defense is the problem. Thomas Meunier is 34. Brandon Mechele was recalled from the international wilderness because the depth chart simply needed bodies. Koni De Winter has been promising at Milan but Belgium have conceded too many in transition — five goals across two qualifiers against Wales should have been a warning. Against quick wingers, Belgium will bleed chances; against deep low blocks (read: Iran), they may struggle to break through if Doku isn’t on form.

The Group G draw is forgiving. Egypt is the only side close to Belgium in raw talent, and even there the gap is sizable on paper. Iran is the trap match — disciplined, deep, willing to soak up pressure for 90 minutes. New Zealand should be three points. The Red Devils enter as comfortable favorites to top the group, but the knockout rounds remain the test that has broken every previous iteration of this golden generation.

Garcia, in his first international job after stops at Lille, Roma, Marseille, Lyon, Al-Nassr and Napoli, has been calm about expectations. He’s said publicly the goal is the quarter-finals and beyond. Belgium fans have heard that before. This time, there’s nowhere left to defer the reckoning.

Rudi José Garcia, born 20 February 1964 in Nemours, France, took over the Belgium job on 24 January 2025, succeeding Domenico Tedesco after a contract dispute. It is the first international role of a club-management career that has run from Dijon and Le Mans through Lille, Roma, Marseille, Lyon, Al-Nassr and Napoli — a CV that includes a Ligue 1 title with Lille in 2011 (still considered one of French football’s great underdog triumphs) and a Europa League final with Marseille in 2018.

Garcia’s tactical signature is flexibility over dogma. He has built winning teams using a 4-3-3 (Lille’s title side, his early Roma years) and a 4-2-3-1 (Marseille, Lyon) depending on personnel. With Belgium, he has so far oscillated between the two: 4-3-3 when De Bruyne is fit and Doku is fresh; 4-2-3-1 with an extra midfielder when facing more direct opposition. Belgium’s qualifying campaign — they conceded five across two fixtures against Wales but still finished top — exposed the defensive trade-off in his attacking approach, and his squad selection clearly prioritized attacking depth over defensive renewal.

His Napoli tenure ended badly. Garcia inherited the freshly crowned Serie A champions in summer 2023 and was sacked in November of the same year after losing the dressing room, with criticism centered on his man-management of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and his inability to recreate Luciano Spalletti’s tactical structure. He was out of work for over a year before the Belgium job arrived — a left-field appointment given the KBVB’s previous preference for international candidates, but one defended on grounds of his French-language ability (important for Walloon players), broad continental experience, and a strong personal pitch.

Belgium’s federation has been clear about expectations: keep the door open for the Golden Generation while integrating younger players such as Doku, De Cuyper, Debast, De Winter and the various Lille-pipeline talents. Garcia has 16 months and a World Cup to demonstrate that the international game suits him. His contract runs through the tournament; what happens after depends almost entirely on what happens in June and July 2026.