Colombia vs DR Congo

Guadalajara’s Estadio on 23 June hosts what may be Group K’s most competitively balanced match — Colombia’s second group game and DR Congo’s must-not-lose middle fixture. Both teams arrive having opened their tournaments six days earlier (Colombia at the Azteca against Uzbekistan, DR Congo against Portugal in Houston), and both have asymmetric reasons for needing a result. Colombia’s mostly likely path through the group requires winning this match and avoiding a draw against Portugal in the final; DR Congo’s path to the round of 32 requires at minimum a draw here followed by a win against Uzbekistan. The match-up is significantly closer than the FIFA rankings (Colombia 14, DR Congo 60) suggest.

Tactically this is the most symmetrical Group K pairing. Colombia’s 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid mirrors many of the structural features of DR Congo’s 4-2-3-1 — both teams use a single No. 10 (James, Kakuta), both rely on wide forwards for transition threat (Luis Díaz, Wissa), both have midfield pivots designed around physical destruction (Lerma, Sadiki / Edo Kayembe). The expected possession split is around 55-45 in Colombia’s favor — closer than any other Group K match — and the game will likely turn on transitions. Wissa vs. Colombia’s centre-back pairing is the single most consequential matchup; Sánchez at Galatasaray and Lucumí at Bologna are both 28-30 years old and capable defenders, but neither has played a winger of Wissa’s 2025-26 Premier League form (19 goals at Newcastle).

The James-Mbemba matchup is the night’s veteran-versus-veteran headline. James, 34, will dictate Colombia’s tempo from a deeper position than usual; Mbemba, 31, will marshal a Leopards back line that has not conceded more than one goal in any competitive match in 18 months. DR Congo’s best route to goal is a set-piece situation — Bakambu, Banza or Mbemba himself on a corner, with the Lille connection between Bakambu’s Real Betis service and the rest of the front line tested. Colombia’s most likely goal sequence is a Luis Díaz cut-inside-and-shoot or a James direct free-kick. Daniel Muñoz overlapping on the right is the secondary threat that few squads have answered effectively in 2024-25.

Prediction: Colombia 2-1. The closest Group K match of the tournament. DR Congo will trouble Colombia in moments — most likely a counter-attack goal through Wissa or a set-piece converted by Mbemba or Bakambu — but Colombia’s overall technical quality and tournament depth eventually tilt the result. A 2-1 Colombia win is the most likely scoreline; a 1-1 draw is plausible if DR Congo can manage 70 minutes without conceding. Either result leaves the group genuinely open for Day 3, with DR Congo needing to beat Uzbekistan in Atlanta and Colombia facing Portugal in Miami.