Paraguay

The most useful framing for Paraguay’s tournament is the qualifying numbers: ten goals conceded across eighteen CONMEBOL matches, but only fourteen scored. Gustavo Alfaro has built a team that does one thing — defend in shape — exceptionally well, and one thing — convert chances — only adequately. That balance is enough to win a third-place group finish and probably enough, in the new 48-team format, to advance to the knockout rounds as one of the eight best third-place teams. It is probably not enough to win a knockout match against a top-eight European or South American side.

The projected XI is settled enough that the surprise would be a deviation: Roberto Fernández in goal; Caceres, Gómez (captain), Alderete, Alonso across the back; Bobadilla and Cubas as the defensive double pivot; Almirón, Enciso, and Diego Gómez in a fluid front three behind Antonio Sanabria. The structural strength is the centre-back pairing — Gómez at 33 is in his late prime at Palmeiras, where he won the 2024 Brasileirão; Alderete is the more press-resistant ball-player at Sunderland. The structural weakness is the lack of a goal-scoring No. 9: Sanabria’s 2025-26 season at Cremonese was inconsistent, and Alfaro has been clear that he will be looking at every minute his striker plays before submitting the final roster.

Group difficulty is genuinely high. Paraguay open against the USA in LA on 12 June — the toughest possible draw — before Türkiye in the Bay Area on 19 June and Australia in the Bay Area on 25 June. The strategic plan is unambiguous: hold the USMNT to a draw, win against either of the other two, and bank the third-place finish that the 48-team format rewards. Ceiling: Round of 16 if they steal a point in LA and beat both of the next two. Floor: group-stage exit if both the Sanabria question and Alfaro’s set-piece reliance fail to deliver any goal. Most likely outcome: three or four points in the group, third place, qualification to the Round of 32 as one of the better third-placers, then a knockout match against a top-tier side that ends the run quickly but credibly.

Paraguay’s return to the World Cup is the kind of revival story that wouldn’t have looked plausible eighteen months ago. The Albirroja had missed the 2014, 2018, and 2022 tournaments, and after the first half of CONMEBOL qualifying they had just five points from a possible eighteen. The federation made a hard-nosed pivot in mid-2024, hiring 62-year-old Argentine Gustavo Alfaro — fresh off a brief and unhappy run in Costa Rica — and giving him a mandate to do exactly what he had done for Ecuador in the 2022 cycle: build a wall, attack on the counter, win the games you should and steal one you shouldn’t. He delivered. Paraguay finished sixth in the ten-team CONMEBOL table, qualifying directly without the playoff route, beating both Brazil and Argentina along the way, and conceding just ten goals across eighteen matches.

The tactical identity is unambiguous. Paraguay defend in a 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid that compresses into a low-to-mid block when the opposition has the ball — closing the lines, forcing wide passes, and letting captain Gustavo Gómez (the Palmeiras centre-back with more than 88 caps and league titles in Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil) and Omar Alderete (now at Premier League Sunderland) clean up everything that gets through. Andrés Cubas and Diego Gómez form the screen ahead of them. The attacking plan is direct: win the ball, find Miguel Almirón in space, let him run. Almirón, now back in MLS with Atlanta United after his Newcastle stint, remains the team’s most reliable counter-attacking outlet at 32. The unpredictable variable is 22-year-old Julio Enciso, the Brighton-developed playmaker who joined BlueCo-owned Strasbourg in summer 2025 and scored three goals in qualifying.

Paraguay announced a 55-man preliminary squad on 12 May 2026 with the final 26 due to FIFA by 1 June. The expected first-choice front line beyond Almirón and Enciso is Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese), an experienced if inconsistent No. 9 who returned to Italian football last summer. Manchester United’s 19-year-old Diego León headlines the next-generation defensive cohort. Veteran goalkeeper Roberto “Gatito” Fernández (Cerro Porteño) — 38 years old and a fixture since 2017 — looks set to start, with São Paulo’s Carlos Coronel his most plausible backup.

Group D is, by Paraguayan standards, an opportunity. They will not be favoured against the USA in Los Angeles, but the matches with Turkey (19 June, San Francisco Bay Area) and Australia (25 June, San Francisco Bay Area) are genuinely winnable. Paraguay’s best-ever finish remains the 2010 quarter-final under Gerardo Martino — lost on penalties to Spain — and the 2026 ceiling realistically tops out at a similar deep run, with the floor being a third-place group finish that still might be enough in a 48-team format. Alfaro himself has described his relationship with the country as “intense”; the next month will define whether his second international cycle eclipses his Ecuador run.

Gustavo Julio Alfaro was born on 14 August 1962 in Rafaela, the small Argentine city in Santa Fe province that has, improbably, given South American football a disproportionate share of its managers. He never made it as a top-level player — a short career as a centre-back, captaining Atlético de Rafaela’s promotion to the Primera División in 1989 — and retired to coach at 30. That early start matters. Alfaro is one of the longest-tenured managers in South American football, with more than three decades of pragmatic, defensively-organised work across Argentine clubs, Ecuador’s national team, a brief stop at Costa Rica, and now Paraguay.

His breakthrough came at Arsenal de Sarandí. Taking over a club with almost no resources in 2006, he turned them into a continental winner — the 2007 Copa Sudamericana, beating Mexico’s América over two legs — and eventually a domestic league champion in the 2012 Clausura. The Arsenal years established what would become the Alfaro template: tight defensive shape, organised pressing triggers, set-piece preparation, and an absolute refusal to be intimidated by larger clubs. He repeated the trick at Huracán, then was given the Boca Juniors job in 2019 — a single, turbulent season that ended with a domestic title chase and a Copa Libertadores semi-final exit.

The international career started in 2020 when Ecuador, with the federation in financial chaos, hired him on a relatively modest deal. He delivered. Ecuador qualified for the 2022 World Cup in fourth place from CONMEBOL, beat Qatar in the opening match, drew the Netherlands, and were eliminated on goal difference after a 2-1 loss to Senegal. The contract did not survive the post-tournament dispute over salary arrears. A brief Costa Rica stint followed before Paraguay — sitting last in CONMEBOL qualifying after Daniel Garnero’s exit — appointed him in May 2024.

The Paraguay rescue has been the cleanest job of his career. Five points from eighteen when he arrived, Paraguay finished sixth in CONMEBOL with direct qualification, beat Brazil and Argentina along the way, and conceded the fewest goals of any team in the bottom half of the table. Alfaro himself has described the bond with Paraguay as “intense”; his public messaging — disciplined, humble, focused on collective effort — has connected with a country that had spent sixteen years watching three World Cups go by. He arrives in June with the tactical reputation as a defensive specialist who rarely loses the game his team is supposed to draw. The question is whether that template, against the USA’s pressing and Türkiye’s technical front four, can produce more than just survival.