Tunisia vs Japan

The Monterrey rematch is one of the most consequential second-matchday fixtures in Group F. Both teams will likely arrive on three points or less after opening fixtures against tougher opponents (Japan vs. Netherlands, Tunisia vs. Sweden), making this the game that decides which one stays alive for the final matchday and which one is mathematically eliminated. The history is short — four meetings since 2002, never at a World Cup — but the recent record favours Tunisia: a 3-0 win at the 2022 Kirin Cup in Osaka, in a match Tunisia played with discipline and counter-attacking sharpness that the Moriyasu coaching staff has used as required-viewing tape since.

The stylistic problem for both teams is identical: both prefer to defend deep and break vertically. Neither will want to commit numbers forward against the other. Japan’s 3-4-2-1 normally relies on pressing high triggers from goal-kicks and forcing turnovers in the opponent’s half; against Tunisia’s 5-4-1 mid-block, that pattern will produce fewer turnovers than Moriyasu would like. Tunisia’s transitions through Achouri on the left will run into Sugawara — capable but not elite defensively — and the most promising attacking outlet for Lamouchi’s side. Mejbri’s set-piece delivery is the single most likely scoring source for either team.

The Mitoma absence matters most in this fixture. Against Tunisia, Japan would have wanted the single player in the squad with the dribbling to unlock a deep block; without him, Kubo is asked to do the work from the right channel, and the secondary creators (Doan, Kamada, Junya Ito) are all sequence-based rather than 1-on-1 attackers. Goto, the new attacking call-up, is the wildcard — if Moriyasu introduces him in the 60th minute and chases the win, he becomes a relevant variable.

The most likely outcome is a 1-0 Japan win on a set piece or a late substitute’s goal. A 0-0 draw is the second-most-plausible scenario and would put both teams in a position where they need to beat (or at minimum draw) their final opponent — Japan vs. Sweden, Tunisia vs. Netherlands — to have any chance of advancing. A Tunisia win would be the result of the group stage and would in all probability secure them a first-ever Round of 16 berth.