South Africa

South Africa are the longest-priced side in Group A — bookmakers have them at +1600 to win the group, with predictive models giving them roughly a 25% chance of advancing — and yet they are not a hopeless underdog. Two consecutive AFCON podium finishes (bronze in 2023 in Côte d’Ivoire, third again in 2025 in Morocco) suggest a side that knows how to grind out tournament results. Captain Ronwen Williams was named AFCON 2023’s Player of the Tournament for a string of penalty-shootout heroics, and the squad core — Mokoena, Mofokeng, Appollis, Foster, Zwane — has now played roughly two dozen tournament matches together over the last two and a half years. That kind of cohesion is rare in African football, especially for a side that historically swapped managers every 18 months.

The schedule is plausibly winnable. The opener against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca on 11 June is the toughest possible draw — the first match of the entire 48-team World Cup, in front of 87,000 hostile fans, against the host nation — and a defeat is the expected outcome, with the realistic target being a credible scoreline (1-0 or 2-1) rather than a humiliation. The middle fixture against Czechia in Atlanta on 18 June is the one Broos has openly identified as winnable; Czechia is technically better but South Africa’s pace on the flanks against Czech full-backs is a genuine mismatch, and the Atlanta heat/humidity should help the African side more than the European. The closer against South Korea in Monterrey on 24 June is the real swing — both sides will likely need a result, and the historical head-to-head (3W-1L-2D for Korea over four meetings) only modestly favours the Asians.

The ceiling is a Round of 16 berth via second place, a result that would be South Africa’s deepest run since they reached the Round of 16 in 2002 in Japan. The floor is three competitive losses and elimination on goal difference, which would still represent a successful tournament given the 16-year absence. The most-likely outcome is a Group-stage exit with one win (probably against Czechia or South Africa’s opening surprise upset of Korea), a heroic loss to Mexico, and a narrow miss at the best-third-place spot. For Broos, who has said he will retire to Belgium after this tournament regardless, the legacy work is essentially complete — he has restored a functioning national-team identity to a programme that had drifted for fifteen years. The football this side plays from June 11 onward is the bonus chapter.

South Africa’s qualification for the 2026 World Cup is the single biggest sporting story in the country since the 2010 World Cup they hosted. Bafana Bafana topped CAF Group C ahead of Nigeria — finishing on 18 points to Nigeria’s 17, despite drawing twice with the Super Eagles and losing 2-0 in Rwanda before getting that result overturned to a 3-0 loss when SAFA fielded an ineligible player. The sealing victory was a 3-0 win over Rwanda on the final matchday (goals from Thalente Mbatha, Oswin Appollis and Evidence Makgopa). This is South Africa’s fourth World Cup appearance (1998, 2002, 2010, 2026) and their first as a qualifier rather than a host — and the manager who got them here, Hugo Broos, is the same Belgian who won the 2017 AFCON with Cameroon as a virtual unknown.

Tactically, Broos has imposed an identity on a squad that, for most of the post-2010 era, had none. His basic shape is a 4-2-3-1 with Teboho Mokoena and Jayden Adams (or Sphephelo Sithole) as the double pivot, captain Ronwen Williams behind a back four marshalled by Mamelodi Sundowns’ Khuliso Mudau and Bafana’s emerging centre-back Mbekezeli Mbokazi. The attacking shape relies heavily on overlapping movement — Relebohile Mofokeng and Oswin Appollis on the wings, the 36-year-old Themba Zwane behind the striker as a deep-lying playmaker, and either Lyle Foster (Burnley) or Iqraam Rayners as the No.9. Broos talks publicly about prioritising “power and physique” alongside technique, and his Bafana side is markedly more athletic than the AFCON sides of 2019 or 2021.

Recent form is hard to read because their two warm-up friendlies were against Panama (a March 27 match at Moses Mabhida and a March 31 fixture at DHL Stadium) rather than World Cup-grade opposition. What’s clearer is the tournament-hardness this squad now has: bronze at AFCON 2023 in Côte d’Ivoire, third place again at AFCON 2025 in Morocco (despite what Broos himself called “imposter syndrome” early in that tournament). Captain Williams was named AFCON 2023’s player of the tournament after a series of penalty-shootout heroics, and that competence in big moments is what most distinguishes this side from any post-1998 Bafana team. The 32-man preliminary squad announced 21 May has nine Mamelodi Sundowns players, nine from Orlando Pirates, four from Kaizer Chiefs, and only a handful (Foster, Cross, Mokoena previously, Mbatha) based outside the PSL — far from ideal for big-stage prep, but the upside is unusual cohesion.

South Africa’s prior World Cup record is grim: three group-stage exits, including the painful 2010 home tournament where they became the first host nation ever eliminated in the group stage despite beating France 2-1 in their last match. The 1-1 draw with Mexico in the 2010 opener at Soccer City is the most replayed moment of South African football history, and Group A’s opener against Mexico on 11 June at the Estadio Azteca is a kind of cosmic rematch. Bafana are by some distance the longest-priced group winner at +1600, with predictive models giving them maybe a 25% chance of advancing. The realistic ceiling is a Round of 32 berth as the second or third-place finisher; the floor is a competitive but ultimately winless campaign that nonetheless lays the foundation for the 2030 cycle, when most of this squad will still be available.

Hugo Broos is the unlikely hero of South African football. A former Belgian international defender (24 caps, member of the 1980 European Championship runner-up squad and the 1986 World Cup squad), he spent his playing career mostly at Anderlecht and Club Brugge. As a coach his early Belgian career was distinguished: two Belgian league titles at Club Brugge (1995-96 and 1997-98), two Belgian cups, a brief and unhappy spell at Anderlecht in 2001-02, and time at Trabzonspor in Turkey. He was widely viewed as a competent but unspectacular Belgian club journeyman well into his 60s, last seen at the modest KV Oostende in 2018-19.

Then came the Cameroon job in February 2016 — and the most improbable AFCON triumph of the modern era. Inheriting an indomitable Lions squad in disarray, with multiple senior players refusing call-ups, Broos selected a virtually unknown squad on the basis of physicality and hunger, and beat Egypt 2-1 in the 2017 final in Libreville. He became the first European to win the African Cup of Nations. The federation thanked him by firing him eight months later when Cameroon failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup — a bitter ending Broos has discussed publicly many times since. He went back to Belgium, took the Oostende job briefly, and seemed headed for a quiet retirement when SAFA approached him in May 2021.

The South Africa rebuild has been remarkable. Broos inherited a squad with no recent tournament experience and a federation hostile to selecting overseas-based players. He immediately picked a fight over selection policy, prioritising young domestic talent (Mbatha, Mokoena, Mofokeng, Appollis) and ruthlessly dropping veterans who didn’t meet his physical standard — including, controversially, captain Andile Jali. By AFCON 2023 in Côte d’Ivoire, the rebuild was bearing fruit: a semi-final loss to Nigeria on penalties, then a bronze medal via a 1-0 win over DR Congo in the third-place playoff. At AFCON 2025 in Morocco, despite what Broos himself called early “imposter syndrome,” Bafana finished third again. And the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign — topping a group with Nigeria, Benin and Rwanda — sealed the picture.

Tactically, Broos plays a flexible 4-2-3-1 with Teboho Mokoena and Jayden Adams (or Sphephelo Sithole) as screeners, Ronwen Williams (his 2023 AFCON Player of the Tournament) behind, and the attacking quartet built around Mofokeng/Appollis pace on the wings, Themba Zwane’s vision underneath, and Lyle Foster (Burnley) at the point. He is openly, repeatedly clear about prioritising “power and physique” alongside technique. The signature trait, both at Cameroon and South Africa, is selection ruthlessness — he will drop a name player without hesitation, which is exactly what he did in mid-May 2026 when he initially omitted several Sundowns regulars from the 32-man preliminary list before reinstating them. At 74, this is unambiguously his final senior job. He has said publicly he will retire to Belgium after the tournament. The ceiling is the Round of 16, which would be South Africa’s first knockout-stage appearance since 2002. The floor is a respectable winless or one-draw group exit that nonetheless preserves the Broos legacy as the man who finally brought a coherent football identity back to Bafana Bafana.